Evaluating impact is important, but it is rarely easy. Our Foundation views impact as a connected whole, where projects do not operate in isolation but support each other. How does this work in practice, and what have we learned?
There’s a lot of talk about impact evaluation, but it’s often easier said than done. Even the meaning of ‘impact’ can be unclear. Impact often unfolds over a long period, rarely follows a linear path, and is usually difficult to attribute—determining which change resulted from which action or actions is a complex exercise. Yet, as we face a critical decade for climate action, evaluating our work feels more important than ever. Are we doing the right things? And are we doing them the right way?
To help make sense of impact, we use the impact chain—also called the IOOI model. This model breaks down impact into four parts: the resources used (Input), the work carried out (Output), the results of that work (Outcome), such as changes in behavior or structures, and the broader, long-term effects (Impact).
According to The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC)’s widely used definition, impact refers to the “positive or negative, intended or unintended, higher-level effects” of an intervention or project.
The TAH Foundation aims to change the transition to a sustainable future through significant emission reductions, systemic solutions and changes in people’s behavior. This also guides our approach to impact assessment, which we have begun by focusing on our steel portfolio.
Our foundation’s steel strategy, its theory of change, assumptions and objectives provide a framework for evaluating the impact of steel-related project portfolio. The demand for green steel will enable steel companies to invest in cleaner production, and leveraging investor influence ncreases the pressure on those companies. In addition, policy support, regulatory measures, research and innovation, and the promotion of green electricity and green hydrogen infrastructure investments all have a role to play in the transformation of the steel sector.
This approach fundamentally influences how we identify and select projects for funding.
Rather than holding open calls for grants, we actively seek out projects through our networks that align with our strategy and complement the existing ecosystem of projects—both those we fund and those led by others.
Although still relatively rare in Finland, this working method is used by many international environmental funders, such as the Growald Climate Fund. Our approach has been inspired, among others, by Sitra’s innovation portfolio thinking. Instead of relying on single “silver bullets” or a scattered “project confetti” approach, we seek solutions at different levels, actively work to connect partners, foster collaboration, and strengthen positive synergies — creating what we call “project spaghetti.”
In the “spaghetti model,” multiple projects and their actions contribute to shared goals and address the same challenge from different angles. For example, to increase demand for green steel, we fund initiatives that secure purchasing commitments, run campaigns targeting the automotive industry, and influence EU regulations supporting green steel. Our goal is to evaluate and highlight the synergies between projects and their interactions within the broader ecosystem.
Impact is a Team Effort
Our impact assessment isn’t about judging anyone—neither ourselves nor our project partners. Its main goal is to learn from the work we and our partners have done and to use those insights to improve our steel strategy, project efforts, and “spaghetti methodology.” Our aim is to establish a continuous evaluation process that answers the initial questions: Are we doing the right things, and are we doing them in the right way? Or should we change direction?
Our impact assessment does not seek to precisely quantify the size of our contribution but to make our role in driving change visible: “We have contributed to this.” We believe it’s challenging—if not impossible—to isolate the exact impact of any single action or project because many factors contribute to change. The essence of our spaghetti approach is the significance of collaboration. As one foundation colleague put it: “It’s a team sport.”
We chose the steel sector as a key focus for emissions reduction because it has been underfunded relative to its significant share of global greenhouse gas emissions. We believe that even a relatively small foundation can make a big impact by focusing deeply on one area. This focus allows us to build a thorough understanding of the ecosystem and its key players, helping us identify gaps in funding and action. Our impact evaluation also examines how our support adds value within this ecosystem.
The Spaghetti is Alive!
There was no ready-made method for “measuring spaghetti,” so we set out to develop an approach to assess the impact of our project funding.
In the fall of 2024, we tested the first version of this method by compiling information on project outcomes, visible changes in the steel sector, and project partner collaboration—drawing from project reports and discussions with partners. The goal was also to generate insights for further refining the methodology.
Our chosen approach to project work seems to be effective. The steel sector is already well-networked, but a foundation focused on steel and operating globally can offer a broader perspective than individual organizations and add value by connecting people and organizations. Our partners also found value in early-stage campaign idea development and support.
If you read a newspaper on any given day, it might feel like signs of hope and progress are few and far between. From the backpedaling on climate commitments in the U.S. to the procrastination of the European steel industry, the picture may seem bleak.
But at the same time, the seeds sown are starting to take root. There is a growing interest in green steel that is leading to purchasing agreements, and investors are increasing the pressure on steel companies to shift gears. The transformation may not yet be in full bloom, but it is undeniably underway.
The steel ecosystem—and our spaghetti—is coming to life.
Stay tuned for our next blog, where we’ll discuss the outcomes of this project ecosystem in more detail!
Comic: Chris Lysy, freshspectrum.com – Creative Commons -licence (CC BY-NC 4.0)
Iina Heikkilä is TAH Foundation’s environmental specialist and responsible for evaluating the impact of the foundation’s projects.
